“I often wondered what it was like to be here during the Six Day War,” Herb Keinon, a senior contributing editor at The Jerusalem Post, explained to a webinar audience Thursday, July 10. “I think that to a certain extent, what it felt like during the Iranian operation gives you a sense of what it was like back then, in ’67.”

The webinar, hosted by the Jewish Federation of Greater Portland, was an opportunity for Keinon, who has worked for the Post for 39 years and has been its head diplomatic correspondent for 20 of those years, to explain events on the ground to an audience in the country of his birth. There was a lot of ground to cover.

In 12 days, the Israel Defense Forces eliminated a significant number of nuclear research facilities in Iran and killed a significant number of both senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists – a campaign that was capped off with United States Air Force strategic bombers dropping 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” munitions on three nuclear facilities that were buried underground beyond the reach of Israeli weapons.

“I’m going to go with the Israeli intelligence assessments, and the Israeli intelligence assessments is that the program has been set back a number of years,” Keinon said. “Many of [the Iranian scientists who were killed] were involved in the program for 20,30 years, giving them institutional knowledge along with the scientific knowledge. The fact that [Israel] took them out right as well as the physical facilities will have an effect.”

Iran retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles and approximately 1,000 explosive drones aimed at Israeli population centers. The IDF intercepted 83 percent of those missiles and a staggering 99 percent of the drones launched by Iran during what has become known as the “12-Day War.” And while public opinion on the conflict has been strongly divided in the United States and elsewhere, that has not been the case in Israel.

“A poll found that 88 percent of the Jewish public back the war, and if you factor in the Arab public, it was 73 percent of the country backed Netanyahu’s decision,” Keinon explained.  “To get 88 percent of Israeli Jews to agree on anything in this country is no less a miracle than what Israel was able to do during the war.”

And while Israel remains divided on a great many issues, Keinon said that the nation has a renewed willpower to forcefully preempt external threats.

“For 20 years before Oct. 7, the country sanctified quiet. Israel was doing good. The economy was booming. Our diplomatic relations around the world were blossoming. We didn’t want to we didn’t want to tip the apple cart,” he said. “I think one of the major lessons we’ve learned from Oct. 7 is you can’t do that and survive.”

Along with that has come the confidence, as a nation, to take action – a change from what Keinon perceived as a lack of national self-confidence to confront external threats head on. Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies throughout the Middle East have endured another in a string of defeats. Hamas’ leadership has been decimated, their arsenal exhausted and their capabilities beyond guerilla operations in Gaza have vanished. In the north, Hezbollah is taking direction from the Lebanese government, instead of the other way around, and Syria is considering a non-aggression pact with Israel. Thus, a proxy strategy that Iran had spent three decades building was unwound in less than two years.

“The supreme irony in all this,” Keinon said, “is that it’s all a result of a decision that Yahya Sinwar made on Oct. 7. Sinwar believed the massacre on Simcha Torah would set off a chain of events that would redraw the Middle East map. It did, but thank G-d, not in the way that he imagined.”

Israel’s successes against Iran have also impacted its own domestic politics. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been wildly unpopular following the Oct. 7 attacks, being blamed for policies that allowed Hamas to develop the capability to stage such an attack, the intelligence failures that let the attack happen and for the enduring war in Gaza that continues to cost Israel in blood and treasure without bringing home the remaining hostages. After the Iran offensive, Keinon notes, the Prime Minister’s polling numbers are up 20 percent, placing him back in a competitive position ahead of elections which are required by next fall at the latest.

“When it comes to Iran, Netanyahu, for years, viewed himself as a man on a mission. I mean, he’s not a religious guy, but I think even he thinks that he was divinely placed in this position to protect Israel from Iran,” Keinon explained. “Now, if that mission is achieved, if Iran’s nuclear program is indeed set back in a meaningful and lasting way, then that mission, I think, is going to become his legacy.”

Keinon said that rumors are beginning to circulate of a negotiated plea arrangement in the Prime Minister’s ongoing corruption trial, in which he would resign and potentially be pardoned by Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

American actions against Iran also mark a dramatic shift in U.S. policy in the region – a willingness to use force to preempt threats rather than simply retaliate against them.

“I wrote the other day that it was as if the Begin Doctrine had come to come to Washington,” Keinon said, referencing the policy instituted by former Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin that Israel would use force preemptively to prevent its enemies from developing weapons of mass destruction. “It also marked a moment of unprecedented strategic convergence between Washington and Jerusalem.”

This could extend to Gaza as well. While some have postulated that Hamas may be willing to compromise in order to affect a ceasefire now that it’s patron, Iran, has been crippled, Keinon thinks that it is more likely that Prime Minister Netanyahu is the one willing to make concessions because that was the price of getting the United States to strike Iran.

“Bibi,” Keinon said, using the Prime Minister’s nickname, “wanted to get Trump involved in Iran. That was very important. If in order to do that, he would have to compromise some of his conditions on Gaza, that I think would be a move that he would be willing to take. But his coalition partners, not necessarily so.”

While Israel is quite popular in the White House, it’s standing amongst the broader American public is waning – recent polling of U.S. Democrats shows that support for Israel is down not only amongst young voters, but also with voters over age 45. That may not be permanent, however.

“One of the explanations I heard for that was that this had to do with Trump, because Israel is now so tightly connected to Trump,” Keinon said. “I think a lot of what you’re seeing in America, as far as Israel, has to do not so much with Israel as with what’s going on in America. It’s the fissures in America are being played out on Israel. [Israel’s] capability of healing that, I think, is very limited.”

Israelis will have the chance to try and influence that situation at the ballot box next year – if not sooner.

“I personally think that during the elections, or after the elections, you’re going to see a changed Israeli political environment,” Keinon said. “The country is hurting. The country is angry. It’s mad at its leaders. It’s mad at the discourse that we’ve had. We need a new kind of discourse. We need new leaders. I think that when we do go to new elections, I think you could see some new faces out there who will be talking about a new type of discourse, and that there’s a need for compromise in this country, which, in the past has kind of been seen as weakness.”

The full webinar can be viewed at https://youtu.be/1xmurQ02E3Y.